How DIY Investors Should Select Funds


QuantumAMC

Uploaded on Jan 1, 2021

Investors, who do not have the time, inclination or expertise to directly invest in stocks, choose mutual funds as a way to invest in equities. But with the vast number and variety of mutual fund schemes in the market these days, choosing a scheme itself has ironically become a complex task.

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How DIY Investors Should Select Funds

How DIY Investors Should Select Funds Simplicity. Transparency. Integrity. 2 What Is Your Saving Mantra? Is it Income – Expenses = Savings Or Income – Savings = Expenses Small & Regular Saving = Fortune In Making How much it You will have What you save For How much did could earn (Compounded every month you save every year Annually) 10% Rs.7,23,987 Rs.1,000 20 years Rs.2,40,000 12% Rs.9,19,857 15% Rs.13,27,073 The numbers used in the table are for illustrative purpose only and does not guarantee any return. 4 Savers Still Heavily Reliant on Cash Cash & Bank Deposits Others Life Insurance Share & Debentures 2017-18 49% 22% 17% 3% 2015-16 54% 25% 18% 3% 2010-11 63% 17% 19% 1% 2005-06 54% 26% 14% 6% 2000-01 45% 37% 14% 5% 1990-91 42% 40% 10% 8% 1980-81 59% 30% 8% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source : Central Statistics Office (CSO) Cost of Living and Your Investments Consumer Basket 1990* 2000 2010 2015 2020E CAGR TOTAL SPENDING PER ANNUM 23,759 68,923 151,279 280,064 427,619 10.1% Price of gold, INR/10 grams 3,409 4,528 18,268 26,335 52,000 9.5% Units ( Grams) of gold to consume my basket 70 152 83 106 82 BSE SENSEX 730 4,659 15,585 26,557 37,935 14.1% Units of BSE-30 Index to consume my basket 33 15 10 11 11 Fixed Deposit Basket Index Value (Value of initial investment Jan 1, 1990 =1000) (SBI 1 Year Deposit Rate)* 1,064 2,220 3,550 4,628 5,836 5.8% Units of FD Basket to consume my basket 22 31 43 61 73 • Quarterly compounding and Tax rate on Fixed Deposit assumed to be 30% • 2020E : As on August 2020 Source: RBI, Bloomberg Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. 6 What is Asset Allocation? Asset allocation involves dividing an Summer Monsoon investment portfolio among different asset categories like equities, bonds, property, commodities and cash Street vendor 7 Asset Allocation • Helps you override emotions • Helps you overcome biases • Helps to tide over market cycles Past performance May or May not sustained in future 8 Significance of Asset Allocation It is generally seen that more than 90% of the variations in a portfolio’s return can be attributed to the asset allocation decision. Investment returns of a portfolio 10% 90% Asset allocation decisions Market timing, stock selection etc. 9 Rule 1: Embrace Market Cycles Asset classes go through cycles-Bear (Pessimism) and Bull (Optimism) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020* Sensex Sensex Gold Sensex Gold Gold Sensex Sensex Sensex Bonds Bonds Sensex Gold Gold Gold 49% 49% 26% 83% 23% 32% 28% 11% 32% 9% 13% 30% 8% 16% 29% Gold Gold Bonds Gold Sensex Bonds Gold Bonds Bonds Sensex Gold Gold Sensex Sensex Bonds 20% 16% 9% 24% 19% 7% 12% 4% 14% -4% 11% 5% 7% 14% 9% Bonds Bonds Sensex Bonds Bonds Sensex Bonds Gold Gold Gold Sensex Bonds Bonds Bonds Sensex 4% 7% -52% 4% 5% -24% 9% -5% -8% -7% 3% 5% 6% 11% -7% Past performance may or may not sustained in future * YTD - Jan to September 2020 The chart ranks the best to worst performing indexes per calendar year from top to bottom Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Imagine someone holding an all equity Indices Used: S&P BSE Sensex; MCX Gold Commodity Index and portfolio in 2008, or holding none in the CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index equity rally that followed? Source: Bloomberg 10 Cycle of an Investor’s Emotions • Can you control what is happening in the market? • Can you control how you react to what is happening in the market? 11 Know your Behavioral Biases These can prevent you from choosing/sticking with the optimal asset allocation • Herd mentality: This mentality is often the result of a reaction to peer pressure which makes investors act in order to avoid ‘feeling left out’ or ‘left behind’ from the group. In the quest to earn quick gains from his investments, investors often chase returns by following the herd. In the process of following the herd, investors usually end up with the portfolio that is more risky and may not be appropriate as per his/her risk appetite. The outcome has always been a disappointment in terms of returns. People perceive things can only get better So they BUY • Recency bias: Investors get swayed by recent events and tend to be either overweight or underweight the asset class in favor/out of favor; thus leading to inappropriate asset allocation. The overall risk in the portfolio also increases drastically as investors often swing their portfolios to extremes during such situations with the hope that the trend will continue in future. People perceive things can only get worse So they SELL 12 Rule 2: Diversify • Mitigates risk inherent of a particular asset class • Reduces dependency on a single asset FIXED INCOME Regular income class to generate returns and stability • No need to time markets EQUITY • Diversification compensates for one Long term growth assets down cycle with another assets up cycle 13 Investors Tend to Ignore Risk when Chasing Returns Comparison of Quantum’s scheme based on high risk –high return , low risk -low return principle Disclaimer: The above chart is for illustration purpose only The various BSE and NSE Indices are compiled on factors such as market cap, trading volume, and a broad sector representation. In doing so, the quality of the management - while admittedly a qualitative judgement - is not considered. This, in our view, represents "risk". For the increased "risk" taken, financial theory suggests that investors should get higher returns. By adding an integrity screen to our investment process, the Quantum Long Term Equity Value Fund (QLTEVF) and the Quantum Tax Saving Fund (QTSF) are attempting to reduce such "risks" - and therefore might generate lower returns. To peruse the performance of our schemes please see below. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in the future. 14 Diversification in Assets Depends On: 1) Time horizon • Longer time horizon  riskier, or more volatile, investments • Short term horizon  stable, low risk instruments 2) Risk tolerance • High-risk tolerance  can risk losing money in order to get better results • Low-risk tolerance  investments that will preserve the original investment Importance Of Right Asset Allocation Mr. A Mr. B Age 35 years Time to Retire 20 Years Retirement Corpus Required Rs. 2.20 Cr Corpus Corpus Investment Allocation Mr. A Mr. B (Rs) (Rs) Equities 30% 95.54 L 60% 1.91 Cr Debt & Cash 60% 82.46 L 30% 41.23 L Gold 10% 10.93 L 10% 10.93 L Total 100% 1.88 Cr 100% 2.43 Cr Likely to achieve the goal   The above illustration is calculated for monthly SIP of Rs.24,000/-. Annual Return Assumed Equity – 15%, Debt – 8% and Gold – 6%. The above corpus are pre-tax. 16 Which Fund Would You Buy Based On These Facts? Gain in Year 1 Loss in Year Two 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Fund 1 Fund 2 -40% -60% -80% -100% This is for illustration purpose only. Performance figures are not actual. 17 “Illusions” May Make You Buy The Wrong Fund Fund 1 Fund 2 Gain in Year 1 +90% +46% Loss in Year 2 -75% -47% An initial investment of Rs.10,000 would be worth Rs.4,750 Rs.7,738 How much would Fund One have to increase to catch up Assuming that Fund with Fund Two? +63% Two has no returns (Not Likely!) This is for illustration purpose only. Performance figures are not actual. Look at the long term performance of the fund before investing 18 Portfolio Impact of Diversification If you compound your money at 12% per year you are better off than an investor who makes 25% in one year and loses 20% in the next Risk-Return Equity +Debt +Gold * Equity + Debt ** Equity Debt Gold CAGR 10.36% 10.66% 11.59% 7.31% 12.36% Annualized SD 9.55% 14.78% 22.41% 3.29% 17.29% VAR -15.75% -24.39% -36.98% -5.43% -28.53% Maximum Drawdown -21.43% -38.74% -56.17% -6.27% -25.22% Sharpe Ratio 0.4692 0.3236 0.2550 0.4352 0.3750 Time frame is November 2004 to June 2020. The period is taken from 2004 since the asset allocation weights are calculated based on normalizing the historical monthly equity and debt indicators. Given the normalization time frame used in the strategy, data availability for certain parameters beyond the time The most diversified strategy yields similar frame analyzed was a constraint. Compiled by Quantum AMC returns with the lower volatility, compared to a *Equity-Debt-Gold in ratio of 40-40-20. **Equity-Debt dynamically allocated in 80-20 range Based on Sensex TRI, Crisil Composite Bond fund index, and Domestic Gold Prices pure equity strategy Note: Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future 19 How Diversification could have Benefited the Investors in the Covid-19 Sell Off in March Performance Jan 1 - Mar 31 2020 100% equity 40% Equity 40% Debt 20% Gold 0% -5% -10% -8% -15% -20% -25% -30% -28% -35% -40% Based on Sensex TRI , Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index and Domestic Price of Gold as on 31st March 2020 20 Rule 3: Rebalance Regularly • Allows investors to “buy-low sell-high” • Taking money from an asset class doing well and putting it an asset class doing bad SELL on a high when others are greedy BUY on a low when others are fearful 21 Rule 4: Keep Costs Low Expense Ratio 1.25% 2.25% Rate of Return p.a.# 15% 15% Years Fund 1 Fund 2 Difference % 5 423,460 413,121 10,338 2.50% 10 1,229,894 1,165,888 64,006 5.49% 15 2,765,663 2,537,537 228,126 8.99% 20 5,690,374 5,036,881 653,494 12.97% 25 11,260,180 9,591,044 1,669,136 17.40% The above calculation is for monthly Investment of Rs.5,000/- in Fund 1 and Fund 2 up to 25 years at the beginning of every month. This is for illustration purpose only. Performance figures are not actual. # Rate of Return before expenses. A difference of 1% in expense ratio makes a huge difference over the years 22 Lower Costs Will Always Work For You! This is for illustration purpose only. Performance figures are not actual. 23 Rule 5: Be Disciplined Time in the market is more important than timing the market In 2008 see the net worth plummet. Buffet's portfolio declined from $62 billion to $37 billion. That is a 40% plummet during the subprime crisis! The message here is - when the stock market corrects, even the best investors' portfolios follow suit. It is the long tenure that capitalizes on the magic of compounding to pay good returns. Do good returns matter? Of course they do. But to create wealth, it is compounding that matters more Please note that the above information is for explanation purposes only. The information provided here is not meant to be considered as investment advice/ recommendation to invest or for asset allocation. Please seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed investment decision before making any investments. 24 Equities Work their Magic Over the Long Term Holding Period 1 year 3 year 5 year 7 year 10 year Number of Rolling cycles 258 237 213 189 153 Number of Cycles when returns are negative 75 23 11 0 0 Negative returns period as % of total Cycles 29% 10% 5% 0% 0% Number of Cycles when returns are below Saving A/c (4%) 85 44 32 1 0 Below Saving A/c returns period as % of total Cycles 33% 19% 15% 1% 0% Average Return 16.8% 14.7% 14.7% 15.5% 15.9% Maximum Returns 99.1% 62.9% 49.0% 31.1% 22.7% Minimum Returns -52.4% -13.8% -5.2% 3.8% 6.8% Sensex Total Return Index from Aug 1996 till Apr 2019 Source - Bloomberg 25 Implementing a Multi Asset Strategy There are two ways to go about it: 1)DIY investing • Need time/ inclination / knowledge 2)Solutions • Readymade Solutions • Guidance • Tools 26 Potential DIY Strategy: Fixed Sources of Income + Future Investment Growth BROAD ASSET ALLOCATION: 12 MONTHS EXPENSES IN “SAFE PLACES” 3 MONTHS IN A BANK ACCOUNT 9 MONTHS IN THE QUANTUM LIQUID FUND / QUANTUM MULTI ASSET FUND* THE REST OF THE MONEY: 80% EQUITY, (QUANTUM LONG TERM EQUITY VALUE FUND, QUANTUM EQUITY FUND OF FUNDS, QUANTUM ESG INDIA FUND) 20% QUANTUM GOLD SAVINGS FUND *Can lose capital in the near term….preferably own with a >3 year view. 27 Features of Ready made Solutions • Diversified – Three asset classes • Unbiased allocations • Flexible approach • Investments strategy and Process – Valuation metric • Dynamic allocation – Value add • Low cost • Track record – Upcycle , Downcycle, long term 28 Let’s Summarize • Your Savings Mantra should be: Income – Savings = Expenses • Work on the right Asset Allocation to achieve your financial goals • Investor emotions typically run opposite to sound decision making • Mutual Funds can be used effectively to invest across Asset Classes • Cost of investing matters over a long period • Investing in Equities is a must for your long term goals • A high-risk portfolio often doesn’t bring commensurately high returns • Drastically modifying one’s allocation in reaction to market swings may feel natural but realize you may only be taking from your future self. 31 33 Disclaimer – Terms of Use For AMFI/NISM Certified partners only. For private circulation only. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. The data in this presentation are meant for general reading purpose only and are not meant to serve as a professional guide/investment advice for the readers. This presentation has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been suggested or offered based upon the information provided herein, due care has been taken to endeavor that the facts are accurate and reasonable as on date. Quantum AMC shall make modifications and alterations to the performance and related data from time to time as may be required as per SEBI Mutual Fund Regulations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed investment decision before making any investment. None of the Sponsors, the Investment Manager, the Trustee, their respective Directors, Employees, Affiliates or Representatives shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way from the data/information/opinions contained in this presentation. The Quantum AMC shall make modifications and alterations to the performance and related data from time to time as may be required. Please visit – www.QuantumMF.com to read scheme specific risk factors. Investors in the Scheme are not being offered a guaranteed or assured rate of return and there can be no assurance that the schemes objective will be achieved and the NAV of the scheme may go up and down depending upon the factors and forces affecting securities market. Investment in mutual fund units involves investment risk such as trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including possible loss of capital. Past performance of the sponsor / AMC / Mutual Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Scheme. Statutory Details: Quantum Mutual Fund (the Fund) has been constituted as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882. Sponsor: Quantum Advisors Private Limited. (liability of Sponsor limited to Rs. 1,00,000/-). Trustee: Quantum Trustee Company Private Limited. Investment Manager: Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited. The Sponsor, Trustee and Investment Manager are incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956.