Predicting the End of Season Bundesliga Table
                     PREDICTING THE END OF 
SEASON BUNDESLIGA 
TABLE
https://datasportsgroup.com/
The Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga (their second division of professional football) 
are scheduled to finish their season starting this Saturday, May 16.  This will mark 
the first of the Big Five European football leagues to reserve play, and the first 
attempt after the French Ligue 1 decided to end their season.  La Liga, Serie A 
and the Premier League will be watching in anticipation of starting their season.
In light of the Ligue 1 decision, this could not have been an easy decision.  On 
April 3rd, it was reported that over a third of the teams in the Bundesliga and 2. 
Bundesliga would need to declare bankruptcy if the season wasn’t completed.  
However, while the COVID-19 pandemic is improving in Germany, the 
Bundesliga’s original plan to resume last Saturday was delayed after three 
employees of 1. FC Köln tested positive on May 1.
Beyond the immediate challenges of navigating the pandemic and the risk and 
fallout from positive tests, the last nine weeks of matches will need to be 
played in a very different environment from the first 25.  These matches will be 
played without fans in attendance and the league is currently discussing if 
additional substitutions will be allowed and what to do if some players test 
positive and the team doesn’t have enough healthy players available.
These questions have caused a rift in the Premier League as six teams have 
pushed back on the fairness of completing the season under these sort of 
different circumstances and the economic result of relegation on these teams.
With the resumption of play in Germany, we will be able to see how the teams 
perform in these new circumstances, but the criticism of the Premier League 
teams left us at DataRobot curious with what might have been had the season 
completed as planned and looking forward to comparing this to what actually 
happens.
To predict what we would have expected, we used the models and approach we 
developed to predict the knockout stage of the Champions League using data 
provided by Data Sports Group.  We used DataRobot’s models to predict which 
team would win each match to simulate the final nine matchdays 10,000 times.  
For each team, we calculated the average number of wins, draws and losses over 
those 10,000 seasons to build an average final table.
We expect Bayern Munich to increase its lead and win the Bundesliga by five 
points.  Meanwhile, RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund will continue their fight for 
second, with RB Leipzig expected to gain three points on Borussia Dortmund and 
finish in second place.  Borussia Mönchengladbach will maintain its two point 
lead on Bayer Leverkusen to lock up the final Champions League spot.
The fight for the Europa League qualifying round continues as we expect Schalke 
04 to drop from this position and 1899 Hoffenheim to jump VfL Wolfsburg and SC 
Freiburg into the sixth position.
The relegation zone remains relatively unchanged, we only expect Weder Breman 
to pull two points ahead of Fortuna Düsseldorf for the relegation play-offs and 
Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn to be relegated to 2. Bundesliga.
While there is no guarantee that this is what would have happened, we are 
curious to see how the remainder of the Bundesliga season plays out in a quite 
different environment.
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