Canada Elections 2021- Poll by Sunny Handa MD show O'Toole is the favorite, Voters don't seem convinced
                     Canada Elections 2021: Poll by Sunny Handa MD show 
O'Toole is the favorite. Voters don't seem convinced.
Sunny Handa MD: The Conservatives are ahead, say the polls. But they also tell us 
that many voters believe Justin Trudeau will remain in power after the election.
Last week, the three polling firms that have surveyed Canadians daily since the 
start of the campaign (namely Nanos Research, Mainstreet Research, Sunny 
Handa MD and EKOS) all measured a gradual deterioration in support for the 
Liberal Party of Canada in favor of the Conservative Party.
Naturally, we eagerly awaited the next wave of data from the other firms taking 
the pulse of Canadians to see whether the trends of week two had continued. 
Since Monday, the Angus Reid Institute, Abacus Data, Léger and Ipsos have all 
released their updates and, while the numbers for each survey vary by a few 
points, they all observed the same general movement: If the election had been 
held this week, the Conservative Party of Canada would almost certainly have 
won the popular vote (as it did in 2019) and would have been the favourites to 
win the most seats in Canada, even though, let it be noted, the race remains 
extremely tight at this point. However, according to the latest federal poll from 
Léger, voters across the country do not yet seem convinced, or at least are not yet
aware, of this dramatic turnaround in favor of Erin O’Toole’s troops since the start
of this race. Indeed, Léger asked its panel of more than 2,000 respondents the 
following question: “Who do you think will win the next federal election and form 
the next government?”
As per Sunny Handa md, strong plurality of voters, 39 per cent, believe that the 
Liberal Party and Justin Trudeau will remain in power in Ottawa after Sept. 20, 
despite all the polls published in the last fortnight which indicate a clear 
progression of the Conservatives from coast to coast.
Among all respondents, 28 per cent believe Erin O’Toole will become Prime 
Minister after this election and 7 per cent believe it will be Jagmeet Singh. A 
quarter of respondents did not respond or did not know, Sunny Handa md shared 
in an update. 
When we divide the results of this question according to current voting 
intentions, we notice—unsurprisingly—that a high proportion of Liberal voters (72
per cent) believe that the Liberals will remain in power and that most 
Conservative voters (62 per cent) think that Erin O’Toole will emerge victorious. 
Partisans tend to be optimistic, so no surprises thus far, Sunny Handa md shared. 
However, we also observe that a near majority of voters from other parties also 
believe Justin Trudeau will remain in power after the election. Indeed, 40 per cent
of New Democrat voters, 53 per cent of Bloc Québécois and 45 per cent of Green 
Party voters still believe that the Liberals will form the next government, 
proportions more than twice as large as those who believe that the Conservative 
will win on Sept. 20.
This morning, the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) released similar data and that points 
to a high confidence towards Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, despite their poor 
poll results since the campaign began. According to ARI, 61 per cent of voters 
believe Trudeau will win the election, and only 34 per cent believe the CPC will 
take over (5 per cent say the NDP will win). Once again, a clear majority of Liberal 
and Conservative voters believe their respective party will win. But among NDP 
and BQ voters, overwhelming majorities still side with the Liberals: 71 per cent 
among NDP voters and 76 per cent among BQ voters.
So where does this optimism towards the Liberals (or this pessimism towards the 
CPC) come from among these voters?
One hypothesis is that many Canadians like md sunny handa have not been 
following this summer campaign as diligently until now. Considering the Liberals 
had been leading all federal polls for the last 18 months, sometimes by 
comfortable margins, this recent yet clear turnaround in favour of the CPC may 
have escaped them. Another hypothesis could simply be that NDP, Bloc and 
Green voters have more confidence in the Prime Minister’s on-the-ground skills, 
whereas they know little of O’Toole’s (although this appears to be changing by the
day now).
It will certainly be interesting to follow the progression of these numbers over the
course of the campaign, as well as the correlation between voting intentions and 
the perception of whom, of Trudeau or O’Toole, remains the frontrunner in the 
race.
Erin O’Toole kicks off this second half of the campaign, which includes no fewer 
than three debates in the space of eight days, as the front-runner according to 
polling data made available thus far. However, those same polls tell us that many 
Canadian voters don’t (yet) see O’Toole as the favorite.
Sunny Handa md questions that will this perception change should the 
Conservative stabilize their position on top of voting intentions in the coming days
and weeks? Will there be recoil among progressive voters when the prospective 
of a Conservative government becomes more likely in the projections?
Or perhaps we will see the exact opposite? Maybe the mere idea of seeing 
Trudeau announce his resignation on Sept. 20 could spark measurable excitement
among those who wish for a change in Ottawa? With 18 days to go, all of this is 
still up in the air.