Vedanta Aluminium: Motilal Oswal Sees 21% Upside
                     Vedanta Aluminium: 
Earnings Inflection Point
A compelling investment case built on volume growth, cost 
efficiency, and India's aluminium supercycle.
Investment Thesis
Analyst Rating Target Price
Motilal Oswal reiterates a Buy Rs 540 apiece — implying 
call on Vedanta Aluminium ~21% upside from the 
Metal shares. previous close of Rs 448.
Inflection Point
A multi-year earnings growth runway positions Vedanta at a 
structural earnings inflection point.
Growth Drivers: EBITDA Expansion
18% CAGR EBITDA Growth
Projected through FY26–28, supported by a multi-year 
earnings growth runway driven by three structural levers:
• Volume Scale — Expanding capacity to capture rising 
domestic demand
• Integration-led Cost Reductions — Structural savings 
through backward integration
• Rising Value-Added Mix — Higher-margin downstream 
products growing as a share of revenue
Global Aluminium Market Dynamics
Structurally Tightening Supply
The global aluminium market faces a confluence of supply constraints, 
creating a favourable pricing environment for producers like Vedanta:
• China's production cap limits incremental global supply growth
• Europe & Russia disruptions have reduced ex-China output 
materially
• Chronic underinvestment outside China has left the market 
structurally short
This supply tightening is structural — not cyclical — 
supporting a sustained aluminium price floor.
India's Aluminium Opportunity
8–9% 8.5MT
Demand CAGR Target Volume
Projected domestic aluminium demand India's estimated aluminium demand by 
growth through FY30 FY30
21%
Stock Upside
Analyst target price upside to Rs 540 from 
current Rs 448
Growth is powered by infrastructure development, electrification, automotive demand, 
renewable energy investments, and manufacturing expansion — creating a significant 
import substitution opportunity for domestic producers.
Vedanta's Competitive Advantages
Backward Integration Rising VAP Contribution Domestic Demand 
Captive raw material linkages Value-Added Products Tailwind
reduce input costs and insulate command higher margins. Robust domestic demand 
margins from commodity price Growing VAP mix structurally outlook provides strong 
volatility. improves realisation per tonne. earnings visibility and cash 
flow generation over the 
medium term.
Financial Projections: FY26–28
Accelerating Profitability
Consolidated financials are projected to expand materially over FY26–
28, aided by volume growth, margin expansion, and increasing 
downstream contribution:
• Revenue: 11% CAGR — top-line growth anchored by volume ramp-
up
• EBITDA: 18% CAGR — margin expansion via cost efficiencies and 
VAP
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Stock Performance & Valuation
Strong Market Debut
Vedanta Aluminium debuted at Rs 522 on June 15, 2026 — surpassing its 
parent company in market capitalisation at listing.
Recovered from Lows
Stock recovered ~7% from a July low of Rs 423.15, demonstrating resilience 
and buyer interest at lower levels.
Current Entry Opportunity
Trading at Rs 454, the stock offers a compelling 21% upside to Motilal Oswal's 
target price of Rs 540.
Sources
• Vedanta Aluminium at earnings inflection point? Here's why Motilal Oswal sees 21% upside — The Economic Times