Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 by Indian National Supermodel Committee
                     Mathematical Modelling of 
COVID-19 by Indian 
National Supermodel 
Committee
INTRODUCTION
• The Indian National Supermodel Committee has announced 
that India passed its 'COVID-19 peak' in the month of 
September 2020 and the active cases are likely to fall to a 
'minimal' level by February 2021.
Source: www.jagranjosh.com
National Supermodel 
Committee 
• In May 2020, the Department of Science and Technology (DST) 
constituted the Indian National Supermodel Committee consisting 
of mathematicians, computer scientists and medical professionals.
• The aim was to track the evolution of the ongoing COVID-19 
pandemic in the country and to recommend future policy 
interventions. 
Source: www.jagranjosh.com
How did the scientists 
conclude the predictions?
• The scientists arrived at these predictions with the help of 
mathematical modelling. 
• In the absence of cold numbers, they drew assumptions on how 
quickly the disease spreads, the varying susceptibility of adults as 
opposed to children and so forth. 
Source: www.theweek.com
Susceptible-infected-
recovered (SIR) model 
• Susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is one such model 
used by the scientists for drawing conclusions. 
• In this model, the population of the country is divided into three 
groups, namely, Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered. 
Source: www.jagranjosh.com
Model Assumption
• The model assumes that an individual in a defined population will 
be a part of any of these groups at any given point of time. 
• However, the number of people in each group changes over time. 
Source: Perception Health
Statistical Analysis
• At the beginning of the pandemic, 'Susceptible' group has the 
highest number of people while the 'Infectious' group has the 
lowest number of people. 
• As the pandemic advance, the number of people in the 
'Susceptible' group decreases while the number in the 'Infectious' 
group increases. 
Source: mathinsight.com
Scientific paper published 
• Although the modelling committee was constituted of seven 
members, the scientific paper published in the Indian Journal of 
Medical Research has only three authors  a physician, a 
mathematician and a computer scientist.
Source: www.jagranjosh.com
key findings of the paper
• On 25 March 2020, the first nationwide lockdown in India came 
into effect. 
• The paper hypothesised that in the absence of a lockdown, the 
active COVID-19 cases in the country would have crossed 14 
million and the peak would have arrived by the mid-May. 
Source: economictimes.com
Number of deaths in India 
• India would have witnessed more than 2 million deaths in the 
absence of a lockdown. 
• The number of deaths in India with current trends is projected to 
be less than 0.2 million. 
Source: www.jagranjosh.com
Predictions of other 
mathematical models:
• In April 2020, India estimated that the pandemic would die out by 
May 2020 on the basis of the rudimentary model but this isn't the 
case. 
• The announcement of India having passed its peak of active 
COVID-19 cases comes after national caseload started declining. 
Source: www.jagranjosh.com