Ups and Downs Towards Zero-Emission Commercial Vehicles
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Ups and Downs 
Towards Zero-
Emission Commercial 
Vehicles 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ups and Downs Towards Zero-Emission Commercial Vehicles 
 
Friday, November 10th, 2023 
The trajectory of electrification in the US tractor-trailer sector is on a steep incline, 
propelled by stringent emissions regulations slated for 2030, emerging technologies, 
and improvements in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) cost dynamics, especially concerning 
hydrogen. Despite the promising ascent, the road to widespread adoption of electric 
and hydrogen-powered big rigs faces considerable obstacles. 
 
Factors Promoting Zero-Emission Adoption 
Factors such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), proposed modifications to 
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Phase 2 standards, and forthcoming GHG Phase 3 standards 
for model years 2028-2032 have significantly bolstered optimism for ZEV and near-ZEV 
commercial vehicles. Projections now estimate a surge in medium-term ZEV 
commercial vehicle registrations in the United States, reaching nearly 140,000 annual 
new registrations starting in 2030, capturing over 25% of the Class 4-8 medium- and 
heavy-duty truck market. 
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However, despite expectations of a future dominated by battery-powered Tesla Semis 
and hydrogen-fueled vehicles like Nikolas, considerable challenges persist on the path 
to mass adoption. Recent forecasts indicate higher unit volumes and a more 
accelerated transition away from traditional internal combustion engines (ICE), with a 
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) soaring from 70% to 109% in just two forecast 
rounds. 
The bullish outlook for 2030 aligns with increasingly ambitious government 
regulations and incentives, exemplified by the IRA, proposed GHG Phase 3 standards, 
and other regulatory measures. These include tax credits and vouchers, providing a 
carrot-and-stick approach to meet emissions targets. The Advanced Clean Trucks and 
Advanced Clean Fleets rules in California exemplify the push toward zero-emission 
commercial vehicles, mandating manufacturers and fleets to transition gradually. 
ZEVs Are Still Facing Setbacks 
Despite these regulatory initiatives, recent market performance for ZEV medium- and 
heavy-duty commercial vehicles (MHCVs) has fallen short of expectations. Supply 
chain challenges, similar to those faced by traditional diesel truck manufacturers, have 
impeded the production of ZEV vehicles. These challenges are particularly 
pronounced for ZEV startups, which often contend with tighter capital, steeper 
borrowing rates, and lower volumes. 
The current high cost of hydrogen fuel, surpassing diesel prices, remains a significant 
barrier for potential buyers. The Inflation Reduction Act's incentives, especially for 
hydrogen-powered vehicles, aim to alleviate the cost burden, potentially making 
hydrogen a more competitive option. However, the majority of technology-forcing 
mandates operate as regulatory sticks, emphasizing the implementation of cleaner 
technologies for commercial vehicles. 
Looking ahead, advancements in battery electric trucks and fuel-cell electric trucks are 
expected to drive increased efficiency, reduced costs, and wider market adoption. 
With next-generation battery technology and innovations in hydrogen-related 
technologies, electric trucks are anticipated to become more competitively priced over 
the next two decades. 
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Indirect factors, such as corporate pledges for carbon neutrality, also play a role in 
driving demand for ZEVs. Large companies, including PepsiCo, Amazon, and FedEx, 
have committed to carbon-neutral goals, driving their aggressive purchases of zero-
emission vehicles. 
In Conclusion 
While regulatory momentum is building, challenges persist in the journey toward a 
zero-emission commercial vehicle future. Alignment of regulations, market demand, 
and technological advancements are essential to overcome hurdles and accelerate 
the widespread adoption of ZEVs in the medium- and heavy-duty truck market. 
This other article offers more insights on the Electric Vehicle sector: Tesla's Charging 
Technology Draws Automakers' Attention 
 
 
 
 
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