Importance of using multiple methodologies in production forecasting
                     Importance Of Using Multiple Methodologies In Production Forecasting
 Production forecast plays a very important role in the 
global oil and gas industry to provide growth and ensure 
continuity in the exploration and production business. 
Investors usually expect a high rate of delivery so to 
improve this record, there is a need to provide the best 
possible range of production forecasts methodologies for 
better production rate. 
Different long term 
Forecasting methodologies
The importance of providing realistic long-term forecasts cannot 
be underestimated because it effectively drives operational 
strategies to shareholders. There exists the possibility of 
combining different production forecasting methods to validate 
the solution to the problem statement. All methods inevitably 
have their advantages when used alone, but the limitations of 
individual methods can affect the validity of results.
Numerical simulation 
This method  as reservoir simulation requires a history match to 
calibrate inputs. 
The history-matching process 
This methodology can be tedious and time-consuming, and it 
requires expertise and good judgment. Other limitations 
include applying proper mathematical theories and managing 
the non-uniqueness of solutions contributed by differing 
geological interpretations. The validity of reservoir simulation
 results can be questioned because of different issues.
Analogs
This methodology  can be useful in predicting the future 
performance of new wells based on the performance of 
existing type wells. However, a big challenge to analog-based 
forecasting is the inability to focus on reservoir deliver 
ability and quantify the impact of variations in geology, semi-
optimum well design, and unforeseen operational difficulties 
on production.
Analytical Models
This can be used based on the simplicity of the models. A big 
drawback is in incorporating heterogeneities into an analytical 
model. 
Inflow performance relationship (IPR) 
curves
IPR curves represent the easiest method that requires a limited 
set of user input parameters, and they also produce single-point 
solutions. Material balance methods are easy and quick 
methods that honor material balance equations. Looking at 
other production technologies such as steam-assisted gravity 
drainage in thermal reservoirs, IPR methods may be used for 
pump optimization and design tasks but significantly 
misrepresent the production based on changing dynamic 
reservoir simulation.
Conclusion
Production forecasts can be improved through multiple 
methodologies that can be used to ultimately narrow down the 
variability and ultimately converge to some solution. There are 
various examples in which a combination of methods has been 
used to narrow down uncertainty in predictions and ultimately 
contribute to a more practical and perfect set of production 
forecasts.
This Presentation brought to you by 
Meera Simulation – A first hybrid 3d 
reservoir simulator
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